September 10, 2026

Today, several leading climate scientists published research showing that warming-induced emissions—greenhouse gas emissions from natural sources driven by rising temperatures—could amplify global warming by approximately 20–30% and add an estimated 0.2–0.4°C of warming this century on top of anthropogenic warming under different scenarios. These major additional drivers of warming are largely unaccounted for in current climate projections and policies. 

Scientists have long anticipated that rising temperatures could trigger more emissions from natural sources, which in turn would lead to even more warming. Examples include thawing permafrost causing ancient frozen organic matter to decompose, warmer wetlands and lakes releasing more methane (especially in the tropics), and drier conditions fueling bigger wildfires that burn through carbon stored in forests.

This paper, published in Environmental Research Letters, represents the largest effort to date to quantify the combined impact of four major feedbacks (for both carbon dioxide and methane) from permafrost thaw, wildfires, wetlands, and inland waters. The authors of the paper include leading researchers from institutions including Stanford University, Spark Climate Solutions, Environmental Defense Fund, and Woodwell Climate Research Center.

Even once emissions from human activities reach net-zero, greenhouse gas feedbacks could still add an estimated 0.2°C (1 standard deviation: +/- 0.2°C) of warming by 2100 under a stronger climate action scenario (SSP1-2.6). Under a scenario with higher emissions (SSP4-6.0), they could add an estimated 0.4°C (1 standard deviation: +/- 0.2°C) by 2100. 

Critically, these warming-induced emissions remain largely absent from most Earth system models used to estimate the response of temperature to anthropogenic emissions. This means that current climate projections likely underestimate future warming. Scientists from around the world are convening to fill this gap by comparing different models of warming-induced emissions and advocating that these emissions be reflected in key policy and planning processes like IPCC assessments.

The good news is, it's not too late to avert the worst impacts. The amount of warming that comes from these natural systems is directly related to the amount of warming from human-caused direct emissions—meaning if direct emissions decline, so too do these warming-induced emissions. 

The paper’s lead author, Spark Climate Solutions Research Scientist Dr. Sam Abernethy, said:

“What surprised us was the size of the feedback: we found that natural systems could amplify global warming by 20 to 30 percent. This hidden multiplier is missing from the models guiding climate policy, so those models are likely underestimating how much warming is coming — and overestimating how much carbon we can still afford to emit. To close that gap, we need to understand these processes better and build them into the models we rely on.”

 Dr. Christina Schädel, Senior Research Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center and a co-author of the paper, said:

"Permafrost scientists have long warned that thawing soils would become a significant emissions source as the planet warms. This paper shows that permafrost thaw accounts for half of the anticipated warming-induced emissions. Warming-induced emissions are already in motion, and they scale with every fraction of a degree. Every little bit of warming we can avert today matters for what the climate looks like in the long term."

Dr. Robert Jackson, Provostial Professor at Stanford University, Chair of the Global Carbon Project, and a co-author of the paper, said:

"We've expected warming to boost the carbon cycle for years and now we’re seeing it happen in real time. This paper provides the numbers to support substantial emissions increases from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfires. The results are a wake-up call, and it’s imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies. Failure to do so will make meeting the world’s climate goals less and less likely.”

Dr. Brian Buma, Senior Climate Scientist at Environmental Defense Fund and a co-author of the paper, said:

"This research makes clear that the earth and climate system doesn't stand still while we debate policy. Emissions from permafrost, wetlands, and wildfire could meaningfully erode our remaining time to warming thresholds - and they are unaccounted for in most scenarios. This means rapid fossil fuel emissions reductions are even more urgent than current projections suggest. The good news is that it's in our hands—lower emissions now limit how severe these feedbacks become.”

Dr. Ben Poulter, Warming-Induced Emissions Program Director at Spark Climate Solutions and co-author of the paper, said:

“Continued warming from greenhouse gases emitted from human activities threatens to feed further warming as permafrost, wetlands, and wildfires destabilize and respond by releasing carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. This study provides a critical look at the magnitude of the temperature response, and a call to action to accelerate the accounting and monitoring of warming-induced emissions to support pathways that phase out fossil emissions to stabilize the planet’s climate.“

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About Spark Climate Solutions

‍Spark is a science-driven, philanthropically funded non-profit that accelerates progress on unsolved climate challenges. We focus on blind spots that pose big climate risks or offer big climate opportunities—like major sources of unabated emissions—and work to speed up the development of the fields needed to address them. Spark’s Warming-Induced Emissions program is working to accelerate scientific understanding and action on natural feedbacks and support work to better quantify and reduce the risk of greenhouse gas emissions from warming natural systems.