Spark is working to accelerate scientific understanding and action on natural feedbacks and support work to better quantify and reduce the risk of greenhouse gas emissions from warming natural systems.
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As humans have heated up the planet, there is growing evidence that greenhouse gas emissions from natural processes—permafrost thaw, wetland methane production, soil carbon loss, ocean outgassing, wildfires—have begun to rise. These emissions pose a significant risk and are a major blind spot in current climate models and policies, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and Paris Agreement frameworks. Spark is working to better quantify these emissions, incorporate them into key policy frameworks, and assess potential mitigation strategies.
Some of these changes result in more greenhouse gas emissions, including not only carbon dioxide but also super pollutants such as methane and nitrous oxide. These "climate feedbacks" add to ongoing human-driven emissions and further exacerbate climate change.
For example, in the arctic-boreal region, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing as permafrost thaws and wildfires increase, and in temperate regions, nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture are increasing as soils warm. Meanwhile, tropical wetlands are emerging as sources of increased methane emissions.
These systems hold significant potential for increased greenhouse gas emissions. Despite being long-anticipated, our scientific understanding, as well as measurement and modeling of these emissions, is not well-developed. Better understanding the drivers of these natural emissions and how they will evolve under a warming world is critical if we are to return to a safe and stable climate.
Rising warming-induced emissions means:
Observations suggest warming-induced emissions from tropical wetlands are a primary driver of recent atmospheric methane concentration increases, and 2024 saw the largest annual recorded rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, likely related to weakening carbon uptake in the tropics.
By the end of the century, warming-induced CO2 and CH4 emissions from permafrost thaw are estimated to be at least 100 GtCO2e, equivalent to nearly two years of present-day energy and industrial emissions.
Doing so will support:
It is imperative that this knowledge comes in addition to aggressively reducing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
We are working with scientific experts in the field, hosting workshops and convenings, mapping data gaps and research bottlenecks, and identifying areas ripe for support to unlock more rapid progress.
Do you have ideas of places that need more attention, expert convening, or coordination around warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions? Please reach out. We love all flavors of input.
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