Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIE-MIP)

Shining a light on key greenhouse gas feedbacks

Climate change is causing some natural systems—such as thawing permafrost and warming wetlands—to emit greater amounts of greenhouse gases. These warming-induced emissions are adding to emissions from human activity and accelerating climate change beyond current projections. These emissions will increase as warming continues, yet they remain poorly quantified, with early estimates of their size and impact varying widely. Because they are not well understood, warming-induced emissions are largely excluded from climate models, carbon budgets, and global policy, leaving a significant blind spot in global mitigation, adaptation, and greenhouse gas removal strategies.

Putting these emissions on the global radar

The Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIE-MIP) is the first major initiative under Spark’s broader Warming-Induced Emissions Program, which is working with partner institutions to address this important climate blind spot. WIE-MIP brings together leading scientists from around the globe to improve projections of Warming-Induced Emissions and ensure that these emissions are reflected in key policy and planning processes, including the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR7) and the next Global Stocktake for the Paris Agreement. This work will help create a more accurate picture of global emissions and carbon budgets—clarifying how much ambition is truly needed to close the gap on mitigation, greenhouse gas removal, and adaptation.

Specifically, WIE-MIP will coordinate a scientific effort to:

Develop an updated set of climate overshoot pathways that the international climate modeling community will use to quantify warming-induced emissions from permafrost, tropical forests, wetlands, fire, agriculture, and coastal and marine systems.
Support and align the development and inclusion of warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions feedbacks across different land-surface models.
Coordinate activities among scientists to compare and refine model results.
Publish results and release data sets in time to inform IPCC AR7—with data made openly and immediately available to support additional research activities.
Engage in a coordinated way with policymaking bodies to incorporate the findings into key policy frameworks to support better decision-making

Project Leadership

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WIE-MIP is being led by Dr. Ben Poulter, Senior Scientist, Greenhouse Gas Feedbacks at Spark. Ben is a distinguished climate scientist and a leader in the field of land-surface modeling, remote sensing and greenhouse gas measurements and monitoring. He was previously a research scientist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Deputy Director of the White House Office on Greenhouse Gas Measurements, Monitoring, Reporting and Verification, co-chair of the US Global Change Research Program's Greenhouse Gas Interagency Working Group, co-lead for the Global Carbon Project’s REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes study (RECCAP2) and the Global Methane Budget, and contributing author for IPCC AR5 and AR6.

Stay Up to Date‍

In July 2025, Spark convened a group of leading scientists to launch the WIE-MIP at a meeting generously hosted by the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland. Additional information on future workshops, publications, and collaboration opportunities will be released in the coming months.

Reach out

Do you have ideas of places that need more attention, expert convening, or coordination around warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions? Please reach out. We love all flavors of input.

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