Spark is exploring how we can help to advance our understanding of, and ability to respond to, natural system responses, including climate feedbacks and possible tipping elements.
There’s evidence that methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions from natural systems are already rising as a result of climate change, driving further warming, and will likely be exacerbated further with every fraction of a degree—yet these dynamics are not yet captured in the climate models that we depend on for projecting future scenarios.
Spark is exploring how we can help to advance our understanding of, and ability to respond to, natural system responses like these.
Changing temperatures, precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and other impacts from climate change are further affecting natural systems, such as thawing permafrost and tropical wetlands.
These systems hold large potential for increased greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the drivers of these natural emissions and how they will evolve under a warming world is critical if we are to return to a safe and stable climate.
Unfortunately, methane concentrations are not only rising, but accelerating. While we don’t currently have a full understanding of the process drivers of these rising emissions, there is a growing body of evidence that part of this trend is driven by elevated natural methane emissions.
The two primary natural systems expected to most significantly increase methane emissions are tropical wetlands and permafrost thaw.
Tropical wetlands systems appear to be emitting more methane as a result of climate-change induced precipitation and temperature changes, driving further warming.
A similar permafrost feedback likely exists in the Arctic where human-induced warming destabilizes permafrost allowing previously trapped carbon in the form of methane and carbon dioxide to enter the atmosphere.
Projected increases in natural emissions have not been accounted for in climate models and scenarios, including IPCC models, therefore likely underestimating expected future warming. This means our modeled mitigation scenarios will likely prove insufficient in reducing warming within given guardrails.
Much of this work centers around addressing geographic gaps in existing methane monitoring and measurement networks.
Doing so will support:
It is imperative that this knowledge comes in addition to aggressively reducing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
We are talking to scientific experts in the field, mapping data gaps and research bottlenecks, and identifying areas ripe for support to unlock more rapid progress. Our current areas of focus include natural emissions of methane from the tropics and the Arctic.
We want to hear from you! Do you have ideas of places that need more attention, expert convening, or coordination around natural system response? Please reach out. We love all flavors of input.
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