Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions (WIE)

As a result of changing temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and other impacts from climate change, many natural systems are going through profound changes.

Some of these changes result in more greenhouse gas emissions, including not only carbon dioxide but also super pollutants such as methane and nitrous oxide. These "climate feedbacks" add to ongoing human-driven emissions and further exacerbate climate change.

For example, in the arctic-boreal region, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing as permafrost thaws and wildfires increase, and in temperate regions, nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture are increasing as soils warm. Meanwhile, tropical wetlands are emerging as sources of increased methane emissions.

These systems hold significant potential for increased greenhouse gas emissions. Despite being long-anticipated, our scientific understanding, as well as measurement and modeling of these emissions, is not well-developed. Better understanding the drivers of these natural emissions and how they will evolve under a warming world is critical if we are to return to a safe and stable climate.

We are currently unable to fully assess the contribution of these emissions to warming experienced today, nor project them into the future

The recent acceleration in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations indicates that these feedbacks are already happening.

Expected feedbacks from many of these processes such as permafrost and wetlands, are absent or poorly represented in climate models, leading to underestimates of future warming.